Do we have an energy crisis? No, we have a chronic energy problem. Here are some of the reasons why. 1. Demand for energy, especially oil, continues to go up. And the booming economies of China and India are just now adding to the demand. 2. The world's supply of oil can only shrink. Experts recognize an approaching peak in production, only differing on how soon the decline will start. 3. More demand and smaller supplies mean higher prices. Crude oil is now $99 and investors are expecting higher prices. 4. Oil supplies come from increasingly hostile countries and from less accessible pools. Think Iran, Kazakhstan, Sudan, Venezuela, deep off-shore. 5. Alternatives to oil such as wind, solar and nuclear power require large up-front investments. Lag times are long and technical problems are still to be solved. Inexorable increases in oil prices have the following effects: 1. The U.S balance of payments for imports gets worse. 2. Hostile governments grow richer and have money to spend on armies and support for terrorists. 3. The centers of oil production (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Sudan, Indonesia and Venezuela) have increasing political power concentrated at the top. None of the above facts are the result of conspiracy. They just follow the law of supply and demand. Since the supply cannot increase, demand must be lowered. A world wide economic depression will lower demand. A depression will hit Cedar Key harder than many communities. Tourism and clam prices will go down as was seen after 9/11. A more palatable solution to reducing demand might be government incentives and/or major changes in energy consumption. Considering the slow change in consumption it is time for leaders that recognize the need to address the chronic energy problem. Look for such a leader. | 